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Expert: overall domestic steel market finished lower

Release time£º2016/3/10 10:39:00    Traffic£º

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With the coolness of blowing autumn about the appointed time, the domestic steel market in full swing heatwave also gradually dispersed. Domestic steel market overall finished lower trend.

"Construction steel" after a sharp rally in the past two months, most market rebar prices in the 4,000 yuan mark began to adjust the domestic construction steel market overall weaker trend, the overall trend showed a slight decline. 9.17-9.19 East China Shanghai, Hangzhou market lead down to form a larger impact on the trend in other regions, while the north and west of the main market trading atmosphere is significantly weakened, most market prices are Yindie main trend. As of September 20, China 30 central cities ¦µ16-25mm rebar average price of 3945 yuan, the price fell 53 yuan more than last week, up 194 yuan over the same period last month, up 901 yuan over last year's 3044 yuan; ¦µ6 .5mm high average price of 3954 yuan, compared with last week, the price fell 40 yuan, up 134 yuan over the same period last month, up 695 yuan over last year's 3259 yuan.

In the case of market demand around are not busy, domestic production was rapidly released. According to statistics, 1-- August domestic rebar and wire rod production was 65,542,400 tons and 53,198,500 tons, an increase of 16.5% and 16.3%, respectively, compared with January - amplified in July went up by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points. Wherein the August rebar and wire rod production was 8.5608 million tons and 7.1103 million tons, an increase of 17.9% and 16%, respectively. August rebar and wire rod average daily production was 276,200 tons and 229,400 tons, representing an increase of 0.42% in July and 1.09%, respectively, continued to show steady growth. Worth noting that in August exports of steel billet chain dropped significantly, the month billet exports 340,000 tons, 560,000 tons more than in July to reduce the average daily exports fell 62.2% compared with July. Billet exports will decline to some extent on the domestic construction steel resources in the late availability of a certain pressure.

At the same time continued with the introduction of the macroeconomic data, while the central bank decided that, effective September 15, 2007, financial institutions raised benchmark deposit and lending rates. The one-year benchmark deposit rate by 0.27 percentage points from the current 3.60% to 3.87%; year benchmark lending rate by 0.27 percentage points from the current 7.02% to 7.29%; other deposit and lending interest rates adjusted accordingly. This is the fifth consecutive time the central bank to raise interest rates this year, from the last rate hike on August 22 only 25 days interval, a central bank interest rate adjustments previous shortest interval. The central bank to raise interest rates to strengthen monetary and credit control, guide rational growth of investment, and stable inflation expectations.

"Raw Materials Market": by the iron powder prices fall, this week the trend of the overall weakness in Tangshan billet, wherein the Tangshan region 150 Carbon blank part of the business has been lower to 3600 yuan, low alloy billet at 3750 yuan.

"Sheet market" recently all kinds of domestic coil prices vary. As of September 20, China 30 central cities 1mm cold plate average price of 5178 yuan, compared with last week rose 20 yuan, up 370 yuan over the same period last year 4808 yuan; 3mm hot rolled coil average price of 4417 yuan, down 80 compared to last week yuan, 4015 yuan over the same period last year rose 402 yuan; 20mm plate average price of 4665 yuan, down 62 yuan more than last week, up 967 yuan over the same period last year 3698 yuan.

HRC market: the overall trend of the domestic HRC market decline: the overall market trend showing Xianyanghouyi, including Shanghai, Hangzhou market last week fell 70-140 yuan. Shanghai's market thick volumes quoted in the mainstream 4200 yuan, Zhou in the spot market by the continuous limit the impact of long-term market, prices fell passive, businesses follow suit each other now fall atmosphere intensified. However, the market fundamentals, and post-tension steel orders rising costs and other factors Putan volume resource supply price support efforts remain. But after experiencing this round of market swings, the business mentality of destruction, especially in the central bank rate hike fifth macro-control, market rumors related to export tax re-adjustment, the market has made the difference on the outlook opinion is expected shortly the market will be in shock adjustment.

Cold market: cold plate market continued last week's trend, prices continue to climb. Resources in the market did not change significantly the supply side, the market volatility associated HRC limited impact on the market cold. While limited resources thin gauge hot rolled market liquidity, weakening the correlation with cold finished products, market sentiment remained stable. Benxi Iron and Steel Cold Rolling on October ex-factory price increase 350 yuan, basically flat with the market price, a business that has been expected. Due to the large profit margins resources in September, steel is bound to be in the subsequent chase price policy, thereby forming a loop between rising steel market. In addition, before the National Day downstream firms will increase the volume of equipment procurement, with tight supply conditions, investors still have room to rise.

Market Plate: Plate overall regional market specifications of varieties of resources, although not much, but there have been subtle changes in the situation by the sharp decline in the price of hot rolled plate this week, the impact of the overall decline. Wherein the southern region due to the wire this week, steel prices have significantly reduced tone, which continues to drive the market price Yindie, but late by human factors in some cities began high consolidation. Northern Regional Resource arrival increased slightly under the influence of heat the volume decline part of the business mentality is not very good.
"International Market" recent international flat steel market continue to remain strong. In Europe, fourth quarter, the possibility southern European coil prices is unlikely. But in the face of pressure on raw materials, energy and freight prices, southern European mills may require higher coil prices in the first quarter next year. North American market began to recover, but the demand is still weak, market participants have said that the rebound is limited. Currently, the US Midwest mill ex-works prices of hot rolled coil at $ 530 / short ton; cold rolled coils at $ 630 / short ton. Asia, Southeast Asia this week, hot rolled coil demand has picked up. Southeast Asia is currently produced by ordinary hot rolled coil quoted at $ 600 (FOB), cold rolled base material at $ 620 (FOB), up $ 20 more than two weeks ago. The Southeast cold rolled coils export prices have reached 680-690 US dollars (CFR), is expected to offer later will rise to $ 695-700 (CFR).

In summary, a weak trend on the billet market mentality accordingly have a certain negative impact, while end-users generally believe that the current price is already high, acceptance is not high, wait and see mentality purchase further increase, leading to market deserted ship, and now most businesses in the case where there is a certain profit margin of existing resources, cash psychological heavier, the domestic construction steel is expected to remain in the consolidation of the fall. But the long term, as the market overall resources are still tight, plus the price of raw materials is still high, is still expected to price later rebounded slightly; while auto demand is expected to "Eleventh" holiday before the good; the recent market has been hot rolled forward market impact a large part of the region fell slightly, but the rise in the market outlook factors still exist, is expected to slow in the short term the market will consolidate in shock; and the cold plate market in supplementary resources are difficult to place a case, the latter will advance to high. Plate, due to the current market trend is relatively subtle, and downstream profits have been sustained compression, the current wait wait procurement have occurred, giving the market a relatively large pressure. Resources is still small, steel prices remained relatively strong, short-term rate of decline is limited. Plate market is expected to be high consolidation.

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